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What Level of Forecast Accuracy Can You Really Expect?

What Level of Forecast Accuracy Can You Really Expect?

CEO & Co-Founder at Flieber

Inventory Optimization vs. Inventory Management

No matter how long you’ve been in ecommerce, nothing will derail your progress quite like poor inventory management.

One minute your best-sellers are flying off the shelves, the next you’re out of stock with rankings and revenue slipping fast—and strange as it may sound, the very processes you’ve put in place to control your inventory, may be the very same ones draining the profit from your business.

Because ecommerce is a fast-changing game, spreadsheets and Amazon IPI tools simply can’t keep up. For most online retailers, this leads to a subtle but vicious cycle where your last 30 days are supposed to be an accurate predictor of your next 30 days.

But inventory optimization in the real world just isn’t that simple.

Does your stock get thrown off-course by sudden shifts in sales and customers? Find out how Flieber can optimize your sales and inventory.

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Your Success Should Be Surer than a Coin Flip

In reality, online retailers that use a 30-day moving average have accuracy rates averaging at just 57%—little more than a coin toss.

Even the crème de la crème of inventory forecasts are just that: forecasts. These forecasts can provide helpful clues about the direction your business is heading in, but they won’t give you the full roadmap for reaching your destination.

Thankfully, there’s a better way.

Discover how Flieber can get your sales and inventory back on track. Schedule your demo today!

The accuracy rates of Flieber's inventory sales forecast and its competitors in a 30 to 90 period days

Flieber’s inventory optimization platform is specifically designed to help you avoid stockouts, prevent Amazon inventory restrictions, and strengthen your multichannel execution with highly accurate forecasts you can rely on.

Here’s how:

  • Multiple data sources for deeper insights: Flieber pulls real-time data from multiple supply chain sources and considers variables like seasonality, cyclicality and price variation to create accurate inventory forecasts that harmonize sales pace and stock.
  • Forecast accuracy like no other: Flieber goes beyond the standard 30-day window and roots out false influencers such as false zero sales* to achieve a huge 80.1% accuracy rate for a 60 to 90 day period. Flieber’s long-term forecasts are 40% more accurate than the forecasts your competitors are using.
  • Sales synchronicity for stress-free forecasting: Flieber uses AI and data analytics to synchronize sales velocity, supply chain operations, and inventory availability. With increased efficiency and reduced complexity, you can make informed decisions in a matter of minutes.
A person holding a magnifying glass to exemplify the accuracy of a report in a computer screen

What are false zero sales?

False zero sales are those times you sold 0 of a specific product item, for no other reason than you were out of stock. By leaving out key figures like false zero sales, many forecasting tools trick you into thinking you’re making the right amount of revenue because your accuracy percentage, which doesn’t include these lost sales, looks better than it actually is.

With Flieber, our forecasting methodology accounts for what your sales would have been if you’d had the inventory to back it up. Your sales tracking will still reflect the zero sums sold — but for future sales forecasting, those zeroes are exchanged with accurately calculated sales figures that reflect your true revenue potential, which is always greater when there are fewer inventory headaches holding you back.

And the best part about using Flieber to optimize your inventory?

No more wasted time manually putting out supply chain fires and fixing sticky inventory issues. Flieber takes care of it all automatically, while giving you a 360-degree view of your supply chain, and making it easy to make profitable decisions.

Rachel Gutierrez's testimonial, founder of Vida Bom dia telling her experience in optimizing forecasts following Flieber's recommendations

“It was getting more difficult to forecast because we were adding so many new items. Out-of-stocks were a big concern. Now instead of waking up Monday morning and having to run all of the numbers for the next two days, I’m able to just follow Flieber’s recommendations. They’ve been like an extension of the team.”

—Rachel Gutierrez, Founder, Via Bom Dia

Tired of sales slipping through your fingers? Explore how Flieber can help you optimize your sales and inventory.